AIADMK-BJP Alliance Confirmed for 2026 Tamil Nadu Elections: 117 Seats Each?

AIADMK-BJP Alliance Confirmed for 2026 Tamil Nadu Elections: 117 Seats Each?

The political atmosphere in Tamil Nadu turned intense with the visit of Union Home Minister Amit Shah to Chennai. Following his meeting with AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), it was confirmed that the BJP and AIADMK will form an alliance for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.

Seat-Sharing Formula

• Out of 234 Assembly seats:
  • AIADMK is expected to contest in 117 constituencies
  • BJP will contest in the remaining 117 constituencies
  • Seats may also be allocated to other alliance partners who might join in the future.

Background and Past Performance

• In the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly election:
  • The AIADMK-BJP alliance (under NDA) included 8 parties like PMK and DMDK.
  • Despite this, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) came to power, winning with 45.38% votes, while NDA secured 39.72%.
  • AIADMK won 66 seats, PMK 5, and BJP 4.
  • The vote difference was only 5.66%, giving hope to the BJP that with better strategy, they can win in 2026.

PMK & Internal Conflicts

• It was expected that PMK would once again join the alliance, but due to differences between Anbumani Ramadoss and his father Dr. Ramadoss, PMK’s inclusion is uncertain.
• Meanwhile, DMDK leader G.K. Vasan has already met Amit Shah and confirmed his party’s support.

Challenges Ahead

• The alliance still lacks strong support from Dalits and minority communities, especially after BJP passed the Waqf Amendment Bill, which upset minority groups.
• To become stronger, the alliance must rope in Dalit-backed parties with solid vote banks.

The ‘INDIA’ vs. ‘Mega Alliance’ Equation

• Just as the “INDIA” alliance was formed to oppose BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a unified mega-alliance may be required to counter DMK in Tamil Nadu.

Annamalai & Seeman’s Growing Camaraderie

• Recent public appearances have shown BJP leader Annamalai and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) leader Seeman praising each other, sparking speculation.
• NTK, which secured 6.58% votes in 2021, might align with BJP, though no official word yet.

Actor Vijay’s Political Entry

• Actor Vijay’s new party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is also a rising force.
• Political strategist Prashant Kishor reportedly predicted that the party could secure 15–20% votes if it contests independently.
• This could disrupt traditional vote bases of both ruling (DMK) and opposition (AIADMK-BJP) parties, especially attracting youth voters.

Final Word

While the BJP-AIADMK alliance looks set with equal seat-sharing and EPS as the Chief Minister candidate, its success will depend on:

• Attracting more allies like PMK
• Winning Dalit and minority votes
• Managing emerging forces like Vijay’s party
• Preventing vote splits due to parties like NTK

Only time will tell if BJP’s current political calculations will work or repeat the past.