DMK will fall if alliance parties give up… The secret statistics of success and failure

DMK’s Alliance Politics: A Detailed Overview

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has been a dominant political force in Tamil Nadu since its inception. One of the key strategies for the DMK in elections is its approach to forming alliances with other parties. The success or failure of the DMK in various elections often hinges on these alliances. Here’s an in-depth look at the DMK’s electoral performance and alliance strategy from 1967 to 2021:

A Timeline of DMK’s Alliances and Electoral Outcomes

DMK’s Approach: “Riding on Others’ Backs”

The common criticism against DMK is that it often “rides on others’ backs,” implying that the party relies heavily on forming alliances with multiple parties to secure victories rather than depending solely on its own voter base. Let’s break down each election to understand this strategy in more detail.

1967 – Alliance with 8 Parties (Victory)

The 1967 election marked a significant victory for the DMK, led by C.N. Annadurai. This was the first time a non-Congress party came to power in Tamil Nadu.

• Key Factors:
• Growing discontent against the Congress rule under K. Kamaraj.
• Strong Dravidian ideologies and social justice movements resonated with the masses.
• Inclusion of several minor parties in the alliance, boosting the vote share.

1971 – Alliance with 4 Parties (Victory)

In the 1971 election, DMK, under M. Karunanidhi’s leadership, formed a coalition with the Indira Congress.

• Key Factors:
• Popular welfare schemes and strong Dravidian narratives.
• Indira Gandhi’s split from Congress (O) strengthened DMK’s alliance.
• A focused campaign strategy led to a landslide victory.

1977 – No Alliance (Defeat)

DMK chose to contest independently in the 1977 elections. M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) formed the AIADMK and contested against the DMK.

• Key Factors:
• MGR’s immense popularity and charisma.
• Voters’ discontent with the ruling DMK’s administration.
• Lack of strong alliances led to a major defeat.

1980 – Alliance with 2 Parties (Defeat)

DMK formed an alliance with Congress but still faced a defeat as MGR retained power.

• Key Factors:
• MGR’s appeal as a film icon and his pro-poor image.
• DMK’s image was tarnished due to allegations of corruption during its previous tenure.
• Strong AIADMK voter base and loyalty to MGR.

1984 – Alliance with 3 Parties (Defeat)

Despite forming a coalition with three parties, DMK lost in 1984, with MGR continuing his reign.

• Key Factors:
• Sympathy wave for MGR due to his ill health.
• The charisma of MGR overshadowed DMK’s campaign efforts.
• Voters’ loyalty remained with MGR’s AIADMK.

1989 – Alliance with 2 Parties (Victory)

After MGR’s death in 1987, DMK, under Karunanidhi, regained power in 1989 by forming a strategic alliance.

• Key Factors:
• MGR’s death created a political vacuum, and there was a split in AIADMK.
• The electorate sought stability and experienced leadership.
• Karunanidhi’s leadership and tactical alliances worked in DMK’s favor.

1991 – Alliance with 4 Parties (Defeat)

The DMK allied with four parties but faced a significant defeat due to the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

• Key Factors:
• The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE created a backlash against DMK due to its alleged soft stance on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue.
• AIADMK, led by Jayalalithaa, formed a strong coalition with Congress, riding the sympathy wave.

1996 – Alliance with 4 Parties (Victory)

This was one of DMK’s major victories, where it capitalized on the anti-incumbency against Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK government.

• Key Factors:
• Widespread dissatisfaction with Jayalalithaa’s rule due to allegations of corruption.
• Karunanidhi’s promise of a clean government and welfare schemes.
• Strong alliance with the Tamil Maanila Congress and other influential parties.

2001 – Alliance with 15 Parties (Defeat)

Despite forming a large alliance, DMK lost the 2001 election.

• Key Factors:
• AIADMK’s aggressive campaign led by Jayalalithaa.
• DMK’s failure to address key issues faced by the voters during its term.
• Fragmented support from the large but divided alliance.

2006 – Alliance with 7 Parties (Victory)

DMK returned to power with a strong 7-party coalition.

• Key Factors:
• Anti-incumbency sentiment against AIADMK’s rule.
• Popular schemes like free color TVs promised by DMK.
• Support from alliance partners like Congress and Left parties.

2011 – Alliance with 7 Parties (Defeat)

Despite an alliance, DMK lost to AIADMK in 2011.

• Key Factors:
• Allegations of massive corruption (2G spectrum scam) against the DMK government.
• Jayalalithaa’s effective campaign focusing on corruption and governance issues.
• Strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

2016 – Alliance with 7 Parties (Defeat)

The DMK faced another defeat in 2016 as AIADMK continued its winning streak.

• Key Factors:
• Popular welfare schemes by Jayalalithaa’s government.
• Loyalty towards Jayalalithaa and her personal appeal.
• Intra-alliance conflicts and lack of cohesion.

2021 – Alliance with 12 Parties (Victory)

In 2021, DMK, led by M.K. Stalin, formed a grand alliance with 12 parties and achieved a resounding victory.

• Key Factors:
• Discontent with AIADMK’s handling of governance issues.
• Stalin’s leadership and promises of change, including social welfare programs.
• A broad coalition including Congress, Left parties, and regional outfits strengthened DMK’s vote share.

Analysis of DMK’s Alliance Strategy

DMK’s approach to forming alliances is strategic, often involving a mix of regional, national, and smaller caste-based parties. The alliances aim to:

1. Maximize Voter Base: By forming alliances with various parties, DMK seeks to consolidate votes from different demographics and communities.
2. Counter Opposition: Strong alliances help DMK counter powerful opponents like AIADMK or BJP, especially when faced with anti-incumbency.
3. Leverage Regional Influence: Smaller regional parties bring their localized influence, helping DMK gain traction in regions where it might lack direct support.

Conclusion

While DMK’s reliance on alliances might be seen as “riding on others’ backs,” it is also a shrewd political strategy that has helped the party secure victories. This method of building broad coalitions is deeply rooted in Tamil Nadu’s diverse political landscape, where no single party can dominate without collaboration. The future of DMK’s political success likely depends on its continued ability to forge effective alliances and address the needs of Tamil Nadu’s electorate.