Trump’s Putin Puzzle: Frustration, Hopes for Peace, and a Blunt Intelligence Warning
As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, US President Donald Trump is preparing for his first meeting in six years with Russian President Vladimir Putin — a high-stakes encounter marked by sharply contrasting expectations inside Washington.
Within the White House, there is cautious hope that Putin may be willing to make concessions, potentially opening the door to a peace deal. But US intelligence agencies remain unconvinced, warning that the Kremlin’s core objectives have not shifted and that any deal struck on Putin’s terms could cement Russian territorial gains and pave the way for renewed aggression.
A CNN report, citing US and European officials, revealed that Trump has been pressing aides and allies with a pointed question: “What’s changed about Putin?” The query underscores both his irritation with Moscow and his belief that Friday’s Alaska summit could present a diplomatic opening.
From Warm Ties to Friction
Trump often boasted of his “very good relationship” with Putin during his first term. Recently, however, insiders say his tone has grown sharper. According to those familiar with private discussions, he has become increasingly irritated by Moscow’s refusal to entertain ceasefire proposals. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, has accused the Kremlin of “stringing us along.”
In closed-door meetings, this frustration has boiled over. One European leader present at a recent meeting said Trump’s anger toward Putin was “palpable,” with the president using expletives more frequently when speaking about the Russian leader.
White House Optimism vs. Intel Skepticism
Some administration officials believe Putin’s immediate priorities may have shifted, possibly toward consolidating his current battlefield gains and pursuing economic arrangements. This optimism fuels Trump’s hope that the Alaska meeting could deliver progress.
But intelligence analysts remain firm in their assessment:
- Putin still seeks to block Ukraine’s NATO membership.
- He will not accept foreign peacekeepers.
- Any ceasefire could be exploited as a pause to regroup before another offensive — possibly toward Kyiv.
“Putin thinks he is winning,” one source told CNN. “He’ll bank what he’s taken… and then try for more later.”
Fears of a One-Sided Deal
The summit’s format — on US soil and without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present — has unsettled some European and Ukrainian officials. One European diplomat described Russia’s current offer as “not peace, but surrender,” warning it matches the Kremlin’s most maximalist demands.
Still, others believe Trump’s direct, personal style might yield results where traditional diplomacy has failed. On Wednesday, Trump warned that Russia would face “very severe consequences” if he concluded Putin was not serious about ending the war, though he did not specify measures.
A Leader Hard to Read
Putin remains what US agencies call a “hard target” — a leader with a small inner circle, shaped by years in the KGB and an increasingly insular decision-making style. While US intelligence correctly predicted his 2022 invasion, his daily thinking is opaque. Pandemic-era isolation deepened this, narrowing access to him and amplifying the influence of hardliners.
Trump, however, believes his instincts can cut through the fog. He has said he will know “within the first two minutes” whether Putin is open to a deal, describing the meeting as a “feel-out” rather than formal negotiations.
Putin’s Unyielding Goals
Experts and officials doubt Putin’s underlying ambitions have softened. Angela Stent, former US national intelligence officer for Russia, observed: “If Russia doesn’t win, he won’t survive in power. His core beliefs haven’t changed.”
Zelenskyy has warned that Moscow is “not preparing for a ceasefire” and will attempt to mislead Trump. Former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul cautioned that Putin “is not a transactional leader,” making him a far more difficult negotiation partner than many assume.
Bottom Line
Trump enters the Alaska summit both exasperated with Putin and convinced he can broker progress. But US intelligence warns that the Kremlin’s aims remain fixed — and that rushing into a deal could tilt the outcome in Moscow’s favour rather than Washington’s or Kyiv’s.
